AI Overviews Are Killing Organic CTR: The Data and What to Do About It

TL;DR: What You Need to Know

AI Overviews are fundamentally changing search behaviour. According to Pew Research Center, users click on results just 8% of the time when AI summaries appear, compared to 15% without them — a 47% reduction in clicks.

But here's the nuance: not all traffic is affected equally, and being cited in AI Overviews actually *increases* your clicks. Let me walk you through what the research shows.

What Are AI Overviews?

Definition: AI Overviews are Google's AI-generated summaries that appear at the top of search results, providing synthesised answers to queries. They replaced the earlier "Search Generative Experience" (SGE) when Google rolled them out in May 2024.

According to Google's official documentation, AI Overviews are designed to help users "quickly understand and explore information" without necessarily clicking through to websites.

How Prevalent Are They?

As of 2025, AI Overviews appear on approximately:

What Does the Research Actually Show?

Let me break down the key studies — because the headlines often miss important nuance.

Seer Interactive Study (2025)

Seer Interactive analysed 3,119 informational queries across 42 organisations, covering 25.1 million organic impressions from June 2024 to September 2025.

Key findings:

| Metric | Before AI Overviews | After AI Overviews | Change | |--------|--------------------|--------------------|--------| | Organic CTR | 1.76% | 0.61% | -61% | | Paid CTR | 19.7% | 6.34% | -68% |

But here's the crucial context: even queries without AI Overviews saw organic CTRs fall 41% year-over-year. This suggests a broader shift in user behaviour beyond just AI Overviews.

Pew Research Center Study (July 2025)

The Pew Research Center tracked actual browsing behaviour of 900 US adults in March 2025 — not self-reported data, but real clicks.

Key findings:

SparkToro Zero-Click Data (2024-2025)

SparkToro's landmark studies show the broader zero-click trend:

The Silver Lining: Citation Advantage

Here's what many miss — being cited in AI Overviews actually helps.

According to Seer Interactive's research:

This creates a winner-take-all dynamic: if you're cited, you win. If you're not, you lose more than before.

Which Traffic Is Most at Risk?

Not all queries are affected equally. Based on the research, here's how different query types fare:

| Query Type | Example | AI Overview Risk | Click Impact | |------------|---------|------------------|--------------| | Informational | "What is SEO" | Very High | -40% to -60% | | Commercial Investigation | "Best CRM software" | High | -20% to -40% | | Transactional | "Buy HubSpot" | Moderate | -10% to -20% | | Navigational | "HubSpot login" | Low | -5% or less | | Brand | "HubSpot reviews" | Low | Minimal |

The pattern is clear: the more your traffic depends on informational queries, the more you're at risk.

How to Assess Your AI Visibility Risk

So what should you actually do? Here's a practical framework.

Step 1: Audit Your Traffic by Query Intent

Export your Search Console data and classify queries:

Calculate what percentage of your traffic comes from each. If >50% is informational, you have significant AI Overview exposure.

Step 2: Check If You're Being Cited

Manually test your key queries:

Tools like Ahrefs Brand Radar and Semrush now offer AI citation tracking.

Step 3: Evaluate Your Content for Citability

AI systems prefer to cite content that is:

Ask yourself: would an AI want to quote this content to answer a question?

Adapting Your Strategy: What Actually Works

Based on the research and our work with clients, here's what's effective.

Short-Term (Now - 6 Months)

1. Optimise for citation, not just ranking

Structure content for AI extraction:

2. Shift content mix toward transactional

If 60% of your content is informational, consider:

3. Track AI visibility metrics

Add these to your monthly reporting:

Medium-Term (6-18 Months)

1. Build brand query volume

Brand searches are AI-resilient. Invest in:

2. Create first-party data assets

Original research that AI must cite:

3. Diversify traffic sources

Reduce dependency on Google organic:

Long-Term (18+ Months)

1. Become an authoritative entity

Google's E-E-A-T guidelines matter more than ever:

2. Design content for AI consumption

Accept that AI will intermediate your content. Structure it to be:

What This Means for Valuations

If you're evaluating a business where organic traffic is material, you need to adjust your analysis.

Risk-Adjusted Traffic Valuation

| Traffic Composition | Suggested Discount | |--------------------|-------------------| | >60% informational | -30% to -40% | | 40-60% informational | -15% to -25% | | <40% informational | -5% to -15% | | Strong brand queries | No discount needed |

Due Diligence Questions

The Bottom Line

AI Overviews represent a fundamental shift in search behaviour — but the data is more nuanced than the headlines suggest.

What we know for certain:

What you should do:

The winners will be those who adapt to become authoritative, citable sources. The losers will be those producing commodity content that AI can synthesise from anywhere.

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*Need help assessing your AI visibility risk? Get a ParadoxSEO audit that includes our 16-aspect AI Visibility assessment with real citation data.*